On Sept. 12, 2016, Cowen and Company (Nasdaq:COWN) released a report on the near- and long-term market potential of legal recreational cannabis in the United States, estimating that a federally legal U.S. cannabis market could reach $50 billion in gross retail sales by 2026.
Ten analysts at Cowen and Company authored the report, “The Cannabis Compendium: Cross-Sector Views On A Budding Industry,” exploring the many facets that should help the industry generate its 24% 10-year revenue compound annual growth rate.
In addition to the 24% 10-year revenue CAGR, the report’s key takeaways include the following:
- The legal cannabis industry is garnering legitimacy via mainstream investments from companies like Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT) and Scotts Miracle Gro (NYSE: SMG);
- cannabis presents near-term risk for alcohol and medium-term opportunity for tobacco;
- the upcoming elections should be a major turning point for the legal market; and
- therapeutic and pharmaceutical developments present a long-term opportunity in health care.
If the legal cannabis market can fulfill Cowen’s forecast, the rate of growth would be remarkable. According to the report, “A 24% 10-year revenue CAGR is hard to find in consumer staples, in particular with a $50+ billion end-point.”